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Hot Shots: An Analysis of the “Hot Hand†in NBA Field Goal and Free Throw Shooting

Robert Lantis and Erik Nesson

Journal of Sports Economics, 2021, vol. 22, issue 6, 639-677

Abstract: We investigate the hot hand using detailed data on free throws and field goals attempts for 12 NBA seasons. We find a small hot hand for free throws, which more than doubles for longer streaks of made free throws. Both offenses and defenses respond to field goals, but a made field goal does not change the probability that a player makes his next field goal attempt, and longer streaks of made field goals reduce the probability that a player makes his next field goal attempt. Finally, a made field goal reduces the team’s expected points on their next shot.

Keywords: hot hand; basketball; NBA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1177/15270025211006889

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Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:22:y:2021:i:6:p:639-677