Do Jockeys “Look to†or “Rest on†Their Laurels After a Sequence of Winning Rides?

Rodney Falvey, Gulasekaran Rajaguru and Robert Wrathall

Journal of Sports Economics, 2025, vol. 26, issue 1, 78-114

Abstract: We use Australian Thoroughbred racing data, including situational variables, to examine when a sequence of winning rides for a jockey initiates psychological momentum (PM) that makes a win on the next ride more or less likely, other things equal. Of the 42% of jockeys that exhibit PM, we find positive PM is much more common (80%) than negative PM; PM is more often precipitated by the first than the second win in the sequence; and the duration of PM is only a single ride in 90% of cases. The later the precipitating win in the sequence the more intense the PM generated. We find no evidence that PM is related to age, gender, or general riding ability. Although a broad strategy of betting on momentum-prone jockeys would result in losses, a more selective wagering strategy exploiting knowledge of when the PM is precipitated and its intensity, could generate a positive profit.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/15270025241282315 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jospec:v:26:y:2025:i:1:p:78-114

DOI: 10.1177/15270025241282315

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Sports Economics
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().