Fading Shooting Stars—The Relative Age Effect, Ability, and Foregone Market Values in German Elite Youth Soccer

Lukas Tohoff and Mario Mechtel

Journal of Sports Economics, 2025, vol. 26, issue 5, 499-542

Abstract: This article analyzes the relative age effect (RAE) in German elite youth soccer. We hypothesize that, to get selected by elite youth academies, players with relative age disadvantages must be relatively more talented; especially at the margin of getting selected. Using data on 2,383 former elite youth players and their later market values, we show that the RAE was substantial in German elite youth soccer between 2000 and 2020. Moreover, in the sample of former elite youth academy players, those with relative age disadvantages reach significantly higher market values. Our results indicate that relative age disadvantages of elite academy players are positively correlated with their unobserved ability; suggesting that, on average, the RAE results in a loss of talent—and market value. We find that clubs could generate 30.6 to 72.8% higher market values without the RAE.

Keywords: relative age effect in elite youth soccer; selection, market values; unobserved ability; misallocation of talent (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D71 I24 I26 J24 M51 M53 Z22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jospec:v:26:y:2025:i:5:p:499-542

DOI: 10.1177/15270025251320958

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