Unravelling Bueno De Mesquita’s group decision model

Jason B Scholz, Gregory J Calbert and Glen A Smith
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Jason B Scholz: Australian Government, Department of Defence, Edinburgh, Australia, jason.scholz@defence.gov.au
Gregory J Calbert: Australian Government, Department of Defence, Edinburgh, Australia
Glen A Smith: Australian Government, Department of Defence, Edinburgh, Australia

Journal of Theoretical Politics, 2011, vol. 23, issue 4, 510-531

Abstract: Political scientist Professor Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, has made significant claims for the predictive accuracy of his computational model of group decision making, receiving much popular press, including newspaper articles, books and a television documentary entitled ‘The New Nostradamus’. Despite these and many journal and conference publications related to the topic, no clear elucidation of the model exists in the open literature or can be found in a single place. We expose and present the model by careful navigation of the literature and illustrate the soundness of our interpretation by replicating De Mesquita’s own results. We also raise issues regarding sensitivity and convergence.

Keywords: alliance; expected utility; group decision making; influence; risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jothpo:v:23:y:2011:i:4:p:510-531

DOI: 10.1177/0951629811418142

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