Third-party regime type and civil war duration

Sara Norrevik and Mehwish Sarwari
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Sara Norrevik: Department of Political Science, 12292University at Buffalo
Mehwish Sarwari: Department of Political Science, SUNY, Buffalo State

Journal of Peace Research, 2021, vol. 58, issue 6, 1256-1270

Abstract: Does the regime type of a foreign intervener influence the duration of civil wars? Existing research has shown that third-party support affects the outcome of a conflict. Moreover, studies show that the type of support offered to conflict actors can determine how a war ends. While this research has offered significant implications on conflict dynamics, extant works have overlooked the importance of characteristics of foreign supporters and how their attributes can impact conflict outcomes. Focusing on foreign troop support and quantities, this article examines the relationship between the regime type of a foreign supporter and the outcome of an armed conflict. We argue that regime type of an external troop sponsor can influence war duration based on two dynamics: selection effects and signaling effects. Specifically, troop assistance provided to warring parties by democracies decreases the length of civil wars and increases the likelihood for a one-sided victory for the supported faction. The empirical findings for all intrastate conflicts during the period 1975–2012 provide evidence for our claims that the regime type of an external intervener influences the outcome of a conflict.

Keywords: arms support; biased military intervention; civil war; conflict duration; domestic politics; external support; military victory; regime type; third-party intervention; troop support (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:joupea:v:58:y:2021:i:6:p:1256-1270

DOI: 10.1177/0022343320975819

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