Primer on Medical Decision Analysis: Part 3—Estimating Probabilities and Utilities

Gary Naglie, Murray D. Krahn, David Naimark, Donald A. Redelmeier and Allan S. Detsky

Medical Decision Making, 1997, vol. 17, issue 2, 136-141

Abstract: This paper describes how to estimate probabilities and outcome values for decision trees. Probabilities are usually derived from published studies, but occasionally are derived from existing databases, primary data collection, or expert judgment. Outcome values represent quantitative estimates of the desirability of the outcome states, and are often expressed as utility values between 0 and 1. Utility values for different health states can be derived from the published literature, from direct measurement in appropriate subjects, or from expert opinion. Methods for assigning utilities to complex outcome states are described, and the concept of quality-adjusted life years is introduced. Key words: decision analysis; expected value; utility; sensitivity analysis; decision trees; probability. (Med Decis Making 1997;17:136-141)

Date: 1997
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0272989X9701700203 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:17:y:1997:i:2:p:136-141

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9701700203

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Medical Decision Making
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().