Medical Decision Making

1981 - 2026

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Volume 46, issue 5, 2026

Potential Paths Forward from “On Representations and Quantifications of Uncertainty†pp. 531-532

Moshe Leshno and Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert

A Tutorial on Discrete Event Simulation Models Using a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Example in R pp. 533-548

Mauricio Lopez-Mendez, Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert and Fernando Alarid-Escudero

A Novel Decision-Modeling Framework for Health Policy Analyses When Outcomes Are Influenced by Social and Disease Processes pp. 549-559

Marika M. Cusick, Fernando Alarid-Escudero, Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert and Sherri Rose

A Pragmatic Bayesian Adaptive Trial Design Based on the Value of Information: The Value-Driven Adaptive Design pp. 560-574

Michael Dymock, Julie A. Marsh, Mark Jones, Anna Heath, Kevin Murray and Thomas L. Snelling

A Comparison of Methods for Modeling Multistate Cancer Progression Using Screening Data with Censoring after Intervention pp. 575-590

Eddymurphy U. Akwiwu, Veerle M. H. Coupé, Johannes Berkhof and Thomas Klausch

Adapting Sexual Behavior Survey Data to Parameterize an Agent-Based Model of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Transmission pp. 591-600

Jennifer C. Spencer, Emily A. Burger, Allison Portnoy, Nicole G. Campos, Mary Caroline Regan, Stephen Sy and Jane J. Kim

Using Regression Discontinuity in Time to Strengthen Real-World Evidence: A Case Study in Lung Cancer pp. 601-623

Nai-Chia Chen, Antal T. Zemplenyi, Blythe Adamson, Alex M. Kaizer, Cindy L. O’Bryant, R. Brett McQueen and Kelly E. Anderson

A Microsimulation-Based Approach for Mitigating Societal Bias in Chronic Kidney Disease Data pp. 624-636

Agata Foryciarz, Fernando Alarid-Escudero, Gabriela Basel, Marika M. Cusick, Robert L. Phillips, Andrew Bazemore, Alyce S. Adams and Sherri Rose

Extrapolation of Time-to-Event Survival Outcomes of Histology-Independent Therapies Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model pp. 637-648

Jan Mikelson, Richard Birnie, Grant McCarthy, Matthew Madin-Warburton, Ruifeng Xu, Justin Chumbley, Raquel Aguiar-Ibáñez, Mayur Amonkar, Gianluca Baio and Kate Young

Widespread Take-Home Naloxone Use Averted the Majority of Potential Opioid Poisoning Deaths in British Columbia, 2019–2024: A Bayesian Modelling Study pp. 649-660

Michael A. Irvine, Wenxue Ge, Lisa Liu, Sierra Williams, Kurt Lock, Heather Palis and Brooke Kinniburgh

Modeling Health Effects of Alternative Treatment Options during Surgical Delay to Inform Prioritization of Surgical Care pp. 661-672

Anouk van Alphen, Esmee Venema, Bada Yang, Vivian Reckers–Droog, Linde Huis in ‘t Veld, Rob Baatenburg de Jong and Hester Lingsma

Volume 46, issue 4, 2026

SMDM Presidential Address: Reflecting on the Gaps between Research and Practice in Decision Making from Treatment to the End of Life pp. 407-410

Victoria A. Shaffer

From Stories to Action: How Framing, Perspective, and Identifiability in Personal Narratives Influence Vaccination Decisions pp. 411-420

Tehila Kogut, Andrea Pittarello and Paul Slovic

Pressured or Voluntary? Motivations for Vaccination during the COVID-19 Pandemic and Future Health-Protective Behaviors pp. 421-431

Andrea Pittarello, Hagai Rabinovitch, Enrico Rubaltelli, Paul Slovic and Tehila Kogut

Why Most Australians Consider It Valuable to Find Harmless Abnormalities with Diagnostic Tests: A Mixed-Methods Study pp. 432-447

Tomas Rozbroj, Ming Hui Hoo, Alexandra Gorelik, Denise A. O’Connor and Rachelle Buchbinder

Patient Decision Aids into Routine Orthopedic Care: Results from an Implementation Study at 12 Sites pp. 448-460

Karen Sepucha, Ha Vo, Felisha Marques, Kathrene D. Valentine, Ayesha Abdeen, Hany Bedair, Antonia F. Chen, Jesse Eisler, David Freccero, Prakash Jayakumar, Emily Kropfl, Kathleen Paul, Benjamin Ricciardi, Daniel Vigil, Richard Wexler, Theresa Williamson, Adolph Yates and Thomas Cha

Shared Decision Making among Patients with Chronic Conditions in France: A Cross-Sectional Survey in the ComPaRe E-Cohort pp. 461-470

Yaël Busnel, France Légaré, Nora Moumjid, Laurie Panse, Annaëlle Testud, Viet-Thi Tran and Julie Haesebaert

Do Moral Views Change during a Crisis? An Experiment on Health Care Priority Setting pp. 471-479

Liam Strand, Erik Gustavsson and Gustav Tinghög

“They Are Not Going to Be Happyâ€: An Ethnographic Study of the Prioritization of Patients Awaiting Elective Surgery in an Academic Hospital in the Netherlands pp. 480-488

Philipa Mos, Bert de Graaff, Michelle Heijke, Hester Lingsma, Robert Jan Baatenburg de Jong and Vivian Reckers-Droog

Hypothetical Bias in the SG and TTO pp. 489-500

Aurélien Baillon, Han Bleichrodt and Georg D. Granic

Operationalizing and Measuring Informed Choice in Health Care: An Umbrella Review pp. 501-526

Holly Sprosen, Chiara Re, Grant D. Stewart and Juliet A. Usher-Smith

Volume 46, issue 3, 2026

On Representations and Quantifications of Uncertainty pp. 267-270

Rowan Iskandar and Thomas A. Trikalinos

In Memoriam: Stephen G. Pauker, MD, MACP, FAHA, FACC, FACMI, FASCH, FSCEH: Decision Scientist, Master Clinician, Cardiologist, Medical Informatician, Hypnotist, and Mentor pp. 271-274

John B. Wong

Network Meta-Analysis with Class Effects: A Practical Guide and Model Selection Algorithm pp. 275-295

Samuel J. Perren, Hugo Pedder, Nicky J. Welton and David M. Phillippo

Modeling Recurrent Events: A Tutorial Based on Relapse and Remitting Episodes during Medication-Assisted Treatment for Opioid Use Disorder pp. 296-309

Stavroula A. Chrysanthopoulou, Jianing Wang, Shayla Nolen, Anusha Rajapaksha W. M. Madushani, Sean M. Murphy, Benjamin P. Linas and Laura F. White

Vaccination Strategies against HPV Infection and Cervical Cancer in China: A Transmission Modeling Study pp. 310-320

Yuanyuan Shi, Ning Sun, Jingyi Ren, Jiufeng Sun, Jianling Xiong, Huaiping Zhu and Guanghu Zhu

Use of Expected Utility to Evaluate Artificial Intelligence–Enabled Rule-out Devices for Mammography Screening pp. 321-333

Kwok Lung Fan, Yee Lam Elim Thompson, Weijie Chen, Craig K. Abbey and Frank W. Samuelson

When Do Published Cost-Effectiveness Analyses Include Societal Costs? An Empirical Analysis, 2013–2023 pp. 334-342

Divya Patil, Bengt Liljas, Peter J. Neumann and Meng Li

Valuation of the EQ-5D-Y-5L Using DCE Methods That Account for Nonlinear Time Preferences pp. 343-354

Alice Yu, Bram Roudijk, Peiwen Jiang, Richard Norman, Rosalie Viney, Deborah Street, Nancy Devlin and Mulhern Brendan

Machine Learning for Intensive Care Unit Length-of-Stay Prediction: A Simulation-Based Approach to Bed Capacity Management pp. 355-370

Sara Garber and Yarema Okhrin

Forecasting Local Surges in COVID-19 Hospitalizations through Adaptive Decision Tree Classifiers pp. 371-385

Rachel E Murray-Watson, Xavier Guaracha, Alyssa Bilinski and Reza Yaesoubi

Target Trial Emulation to Incorporate Real-World Data in the Estimation of the Clinical and Cost-Effectiveness of Biologic Treatment pp. 386-398

Janharpreet Singh, Matt Stevenson, Kimme L. Hyrich, Clare L. Gillies, Keith R. Abrams and Sylwia Bujkiewicz

Medical Decision Making and MDM Policy & Practice Reviewers, 2025 pp. 399-401

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Corrigendum to “Calculating the Expected Net Benefit of Sampling for Survival Data: A Tutorial and Case Study†pp. 402-404

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Volume 46, issue 2, 2026

Health State Values Should Not Be Used as Minimal Important Differences pp. 119-121

David Parkin

Do Worse than Dead Values Add Relevant Information in (Composite) Time-Tradeoff Valuations? pp. 122-124

Peep F. M. Stalmeier and Bram Roudijk

Reconsidering Cancer Screening, Cancer-Specific Mortality, and Overdiagnosis: A Public Health and Ethical Perspective pp. 125-127

Takeshi Takahashi

Reconsidering Cancer Screening, Cancer-Specific Mortality, and Overdiagnosis: A Public Health and Ethical Perspective—Reply pp. 128-129

Christin Henning, Gaby Sroczynski, Lára Hallsson, Beate Jahn, Uwe Siebert and Nikolai Mühlberger

Uncertainty around Health State Values Used in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: How It Arises and How to Deal with It pp. 130-143

David Parkin, Andrew Briggs, Giselle Abangma, Andrew Lloyd and Nancy Devlin

Estimating the Causal Effect of Realistic Treatment Strategies Using Longitudinal Observational Data pp. 144-157

Yingying Zhang, Alastair Bennett, Andrea Manca, Moshe Mittelman, Marlijn Hoeks, Alex Smith, Adele Taylor, Reinhard Stauder, Theo de Witte, Luca Malcovati, Corine van Marrewijk and Noemi Kreif

A Bayesian Modeling Framework for Health Care Resource Use and Costs in Trial-Based Economic Evaluations pp. 158-173

Andrea Gabrio

A Bayesian Model Leveraging Multiple External Data Sources to Improve the Reliability of Lifetime Survival Extrapolations in Metastatic Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer pp. 174-188

Daniel J. Sharpe, Georgia Yates, Mohammad Ashraf Chaudhary, Yong Yuan and Adam Lee

A New Integrative Modeling Approach for Generating Counterfactual Projections of Colorectal Cancer Incidence Rates in the Absence of Organized Screening in Australia pp. 189-201

Qingwei Luo, Jie-Bin Lew, Joachim Worthington, Clare Kahn, Han Ge, Emily He, Michael Caruana, Michael David, Dianne L O’Connell, Karen Canfell, Julia Steinberg and Eleonora Feletto

Population Health and Health Inequality Impacts of the National Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening Programme (NAAASP) in England pp. 202-215

Shainur Premji, Simon M. Walker, James Koh, Matthew Glover, Michael J. Sweeting and Susan Griffin

Reinforcement Learning-Based Control of Epidemics on Networks of Communities and Correctional Facilities pp. 216-225

Christopher Weyant, Serin Lee and Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert

Estimating Productivity Losses per HIV Infection due to Premature HIV Mortality in the United States pp. 226-237

Md Hafizul Islam, Harrell W. Chesson, Ruiguang Song, Angela B. Hutchinson, Ram K. Shrestha, Alex Viguerie and Paul G. Farnham

Using Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) to Compare Social and Personal Preferences for Health and Well-Being Outcomes pp. 238-249

Nyantara Wickramasekera, An Thu Ta, Becky Field and Aki Tsuchiya

Eliciting Unreported Subgroup-Specific Survival from Aggregate Randomized Controlled Trial Data pp. 250-264

Oguzhan Alagoz, Prianka Singh, Matthew Dixon and Murat Kurt

Volume 46, issue 1, 2026

Facilitating Visualizations of Future Emotions: Leveraging the Narrative Immersion Model to Explore the Potential of Narratives to Reduce Affective Forecasting Errors pp. 3-14

Kerstin Hundal, Courtney L. Scherr and Brian J. Zikmund-Fisher

Influence of Anecdotes of IVF Success on Treatment Decision Making: An Online Randomized Controlled Trial pp. 15-25

Verity Chadwick, Micah B. Goldwater, Tom van Laer, Jenna Smith, Erin Cvejic, Kirsten J. McCaffery and Tessa Copp

Does Messaging for Reducing Breast Cancer Overscreening in Older Women Have Differential Responses among Medical Minimizers and Maximizers? pp. 26-34

Nancy L. Schoenborn, Sarah E. Gollust, Rebekah H. Nagler, Mara A. Schonberg, Cynthia M. Boyd, Qian-Li Xue, Yaldah M. Nader and Craig E. Pollack

Patient and Physician Perspectives on Using Risk Prediction to Support Breast Cancer Surveillance Decision Making pp. 35-46

Christine M. Gunn, Nancy Boyer, Sidra Sheikh, Janie M. Lee, Steven Woloshin, Jennifer M. Specht, Rebecca A. Hubbard, Erin J. Aiello Bowles, Yu-Ru Su and Anna N. A. Tosteson

Do Patient Preferences and Treatment Beliefs Explain Patterns of Antihypertensive Medication Nonadherence? A Discrete Choice Experiment pp. 47-59

Si Ning Germaine Tan, Charles Muiruri and Juan Marcos Gonzalez Sepulveda

Integrating Shared Decision Making and Decision Support Tools into Clinical Practice Guidelines: What Does It Take? A Qualitative Study pp. 60-75

Lena Fischer, Rahel Wollny, Leon V. Schewe, Fülöp Scheibler, Torsten Karge, Thomas Langer, Corinna Schaefer, Ivan D. Florez, Andrew Hutchinson, Sheyu Li, Marta Maes-Carballo, Zachary Munn, Lilisbeth Perestelo-Perez, Livia Puljak, Anne Stiggelbout and Dawid Pieper

Effects of Prior Diagnosis on Second Opinions and Pathologist Viewing Behaviors: Results from a Randomized Trial in Breast Pathology pp. 76-87

Kathleen F. Kerr, Megan M. Eguchi, Hannah Shucard, Trafton Drew, Donald L. Weaver, Joann G. Elmore and Tad T. Brunyé

Determinants of Physicians’ Referrals for Suspected Cancer Given a Risk-Prediction Algorithm: Linking Signal Detection and Fuzzy Trace Theory pp. 88-101

Olga Kostopoulou, Bence Pálfi, Kavleen Arora and Valerie Reyna

Lottery or Triage? Controlled Experimental Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic on Public Preferences for Allocation of Scarce Medical Resources pp. 102-115

Rhys Llewellyn Thomas, Laurence SJ Roope, Raymond Duch, Thomas Robinson, Alexei Zakharov and Philip Clarke