EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Use of a Probabilistic Neural Network to Estimate the Risk of Mortality after Cardiac Surgery

Richard K. Orr

Medical Decision Making, 1997, vol. 17, issue 2, 178-185

Abstract: Objective. To develop a probabilistic neural network (PNN) to estimate mortality risk following cardiac surgery. Design and setting. The PNN model was created using an institutional database obtained as part of routine quality assurance activity. Patient records (from 1991 to 1993) were randomly divided into training (n = 732) and validation (n = 380) sets. The model uses seven variables, each obtainable during routine clinical patient care. After completion of the initial validation phase, newer data (1994) became available and were used as an independent source of validation (n = 365). Patients. 1,477 consecutive cardiac surgery patients operated on in a teaching hospital during a four-year period (1991-94). Results. The overall accuracy of the neural network was 91.5% in the training set; it was 92.3% in the validation set. The model was well calibrated (p = 0.21 for the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) and discriminated well (areas under the ROC curves were 0.72 and 0.81 for the training and validation sets). The trained network also performed well on the 1994 data (ROC = 0.74, p = 0.19 for the Hosmer-Lemeshow test), albeit with a slight decrement in overall accuracy (88.2%). Conclusion. A neural network may be implemented to estimate mortality risk following cardiac surgery. Implementation is relatively rapid, and it is an alternative to standard statistical approaches. Key words: neural networks; cardiac surgery; predictive models. (Med Decis Making 1997;17:178-185)

Date: 1997
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0272989X9701700208 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:17:y:1997:i:2:p:178-185

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9701700208

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Medical Decision Making
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-19
Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:17:y:1997:i:2:p:178-185