Sensitivity Analysis on a Chance Node with More Than Two Branches

Peter P. Sendi and Robert T. Clemen

Medical Decision Making, 1999, vol. 19, issue 4, 499-502

Abstract: Sensitivity analysis is an essential part of decision analysis. The literature on medical decision analysis suggests the use of two-branch chance nodes in decision trees to avoid logical inconsistencies during sensitivity analysis. The authors show that the two- branch decomposition is not appropriate for sensitivity analysis when multiple out comes from a single state cannot be disentangled into a sensible sequence of events. They recommend retaining the natural structure of the tree and propose two sensitivity- analysis methods for use on chance nodes with three or more branches. Key words: sensitivity analysis; decision analysis; decision tree; probability. (Med Decis Making 1999;19:499-502)

Date: 1999
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:19:y:1999:i:4:p:499-502

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9901900418

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