Estimating the Unknown Parameters of the Natural History of Metachronous Colorectal Cancer Using Discrete-Event Simulation

Fatih Safa Erenay, Oguzhan Alagoz, Ritesh Banerjee and Robert R. Cima

Medical Decision Making, 2011, vol. 31, issue 4, 611-624

Abstract: Objectives . Some aspects of the natural history of metachronous colorectal cancer (MCRC), such as the rate of progression from adenomatous polyp to MCRC, are unknown. The objective of this study is to estimate a set of parameters revealing some of these unknown characteristics of MCRC. Methods . The authors developed a computer simulation model that mimics the progression of MCRC for a 5-year period following the treatment of primary colorectal cancer (CRC). They obtained the inputs of the simulation model using longitudinal data for 284 CRC patients from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester. Results . Five-year MCRC incidence and all-cause mortality were 7.4% and 12.7% in the patient cohort, respectively. Statistical analysis showed that 5-year MCRC incidence was associated with gender ( P = 0.05), whereas both all-cause and CRC-related mortalities were associated with age ( P

Keywords: colorectal cancer; discrete event simulation; simulation methods; operations research (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:31:y:2011:i:4:p:611-624

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X10391809

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