Predictive Modeling of Implantation Outcome in an In Vitro Fertilization Setting

Asli Uyar, Ayse Bener and H. Nadir Ciray

Medical Decision Making, 2015, vol. 35, issue 6, 714-725

Abstract: Background. Multiple embryo transfers in in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment increase the number of successful pregnancies while elevating the risk of multiple gestations. IVF-associated multiple pregnancies exhibit significant financial, social, and medical implications. Clinicians need to decide the number of embryos to be transferred considering the tradeoff between successful outcomes and multiple pregnancies. Objective. To predict implantation outcome of individual embryos in an IVF cycle with the aim of providing decision support on the number of embryos transferred. Design. Retrospective cohort study. Data Source. Electronic health records of one of the largest IVF clinics in Turkey. The study data set included 2453 embryos transferred at day 2 or day 3 after intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). Each embryo was represented with 18 clinical features and a class label, +1 or -1, indicating positive and negative implantation outcomes, respectively. Methods. For each classifier tested, a model was developed using two-thirds of the data set, and prediction performance was evaluated on the remaining one-third of the samples using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The training-testing procedure was repeated 10 times on randomly split (two-thirds to one-third) data. The relative predictive values of clinical input characteristics were assessed using information gain feature weighting and forward feature selection methods. Results. The naïve Bayes model provided 80.4% accuracy, 63.7% sensitivity, and 17.6% false alarm rate in embryo-based implantation prediction. Multiple embryo implantations were predicted at a 63.8% sensitivity level. Predictions using the proposed model resulted in higher accuracy compared with expert judgment alone (on average, 75.7% and 60.1%, respectively). Conclusions. A machine learning–based decision support system would be useful in improving the success rates of IVF treatment.

Keywords: in vitro fertilization; implantation prediction; embryo assessment; machine learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0272989X14535984 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:35:y:2015:i:6:p:714-725

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X14535984

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Medical Decision Making
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().