The Effect of Individual Movements and Interventions on the Spread of Influenza in Long-Term Care Facilities

Mehdi Najafi, Marek Laskowski, Pieter T. de Boer, Evelyn Williams, Ayman Chit and Seyed M. Moghadas

Medical Decision Making, 2017, vol. 37, issue 8, 871-881

Abstract: Background. Nosocomial influenza poses a serious risk among residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Objective. We sought to evaluate the effect of resident and staff movements and contact patterns on the outcomes of various intervention strategies for influenza control in an LTCF. Methods. We collected contact frequency data in Canada’s largest veterans’ LTCF by enroling residents and staff into a study that tracked their movements through wireless tags and signal receivers. We analyzed and fitted the data to an agent-based simulation model of influenza infection, and performed Monte-Carlo simulations to evaluate the benefit of antiviral prophylaxis and patient isolation added to standard (baseline) infection control practice (i.e., vaccination of residents and staff, plus antiviral treatment of residents with symptomatic infection). Results. We calibrated the model to attack rates of 20%, 40%, and 60% for the baseline scenario. For data-driven movements, we found that the largest reduction in attack rates (12.5% to 27%; ANOVA P 0.2) among residents. In contrast, parameterizing the model with random movements yielded different results, suggesting that the highest benefit was achieved through patient isolation (69.6% to 79.6%; ANOVA P

Keywords: nosocomial influenza; agent-based modelling; interventions; contact patterns; simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:37:y:2017:i:8:p:871-881

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X17708564

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