Use of the Hazard Rate to Schedule Follow-Up Exams Efficiently

Andrew J. Dwyer, Judith M. S. Prewitt, J.G. Ecker and J. Plunkett

Medical Decision Making, 1983, vol. 3, issue 2, 229-244

Abstract: The problem of surveillance for metastasis in a cancer patient is modeled as an allo cation problem. The hazard rate of metastasis appearing determines the efficient scheduling of follow-up exams. An optimal schedule of follow-up exams is shown to be dependent on the hazard rate, K, and D. K relates the cost of testing to the benefit of early detection. It diminishes as benefit increases or cost diminishes. D is the time by which a metastasis' detection by testing precedes its clinical presentation. Hence it is a direct measure of the effectiveness of testing. The optimal testing frequency = (hazard rate/ 2K ) 1/2 . Testing may be stopped when the hazard rate drops below 2K/ D 2 . Tests need never be routinely scheduled if the intervals between tests exceed D in length. (Med Decis Making 3:229-244, 1983)

Date: 1983
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:3:y:1983:i:2:p:229-244

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X8300300211

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