COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society

Serin Lee, Zelda B. Zabinsky, Judith N. Wasserheit, Stephen M. Kofsky and Shan Liu
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Serin Lee: Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Zelda B. Zabinsky: Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Judith N. Wasserheit: Department of Global Health, Department of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Stephen M. Kofsky: Independent researcher, Seattle, WA, USA
Shan Liu: Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

Medical Decision Making, 2021, vol. 41, issue 4, 419-429

Abstract: As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.

Keywords: agent-based simulation; COVID-19; nonpharmaceutical interventions; SARS-CoV-2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:41:y:2021:i:4:p:419-429

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X211003081

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