An Efficient Method for Computing Expected Value of Sample Information for Survival Data from an Ongoing Trial

Mathyn Vervaart, Mark Strong, Karl P. Claxton, Nicky J. Welton, Torbjørn Wisløff and Eline Aas
Additional contact information
Mathyn Vervaart: Department of Health Management and Health Economics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Mark Strong: School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
Karl P. Claxton: Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK
Nicky J. Welton: Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Torbjørn Wisløff: Department of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Oslo, Norway

Medical Decision Making, 2022, vol. 42, issue 5, 612-625

Abstract: Background Decisions about new health technologies are increasingly being made while trials are still in an early stage, which may result in substantial uncertainty around key decision drivers such as estimates of life expectancy and time to disease progression. Additional data collection can reduce uncertainty, and its value can be quantified by computing the expected value of sample information (EVSI), which has typically been described in the context of designing a future trial. In this article, we develop new methods for computing the EVSI of extending an existing trial’s follow-up, first for an assumed survival model and then extending to capture uncertainty about the true survival model. Methods We developed a nested Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure and a nonparametric regression-based method. We compared the methods by computing single-model and model-averaged EVSI for collecting additional follow-up data in 2 synthetic case studies. Results There was good agreement between the 2 methods. The regression-based method was fast and straightforward to implement, and scales easily to include any number of candidate survival models in the model uncertainty case. The nested Monte Carlo procedure, on the other hand, was extremely computationally demanding when we included model uncertainty. Conclusions We present a straightforward regression-based method for computing the EVSI of extending an existing trial’s follow-up, both where a single known survival model is assumed and where we are uncertain about the true survival model. EVSI for ongoing trials can help decision makers determine whether early patient access to a new technology can be justified on the basis of the current evidence or whether more mature evidence is needed. Highlights Decisions about new health technologies are increasingly being made while trials are still in an early stage, which may result in substantial uncertainty around key decision drivers such as estimates of life-expectancy and time to disease progression. Additional data collection can reduce uncertainty, and its value can be quantified by computing the expected value of sample information (EVSI), which has typically been described in the context of designing a future trial. In this article, we have developed new methods for computing the EVSI of extending a trial’s follow-up, both where a single known survival model is assumed and where we are uncertain about the true survival model. We extend a previously described nonparametric regression-based method for computing EVSI, which we demonstrate in synthetic case studies is fast, straightforward to implement, and scales easily to include any number of candidate survival models in the EVSI calculations. The EVSI methods that we present in this article can quantify the need for collecting additional follow-up data before making an adoption decision given any decision-making context.

Keywords: bayesian decision theory; computational methods; economic evaluation model; expected value of sample information; generalized additive model; model averaging; Monte Carlo methods; nonparametric regression; survival data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:42:y:2022:i:5:p:612-625

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X211068019

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