Determinants of Physicians’ Referrals for Suspected Cancer Given a Risk-Prediction Algorithm: Linking Signal Detection and Fuzzy Trace Theory

Olga Kostopoulou, Bence Pálfi, Kavleen Arora and Valerie Reyna
Additional contact information
Olga Kostopoulou: Imperial College London, UK
Bence Pálfi: Goldsmiths University of London, UK
Kavleen Arora: Imperial College London, UK
Valerie Reyna: Cornell University, Cornell, NY, USA

Medical Decision Making, 2026, vol. 46, issue 1, 88-101

Abstract: Background Previous research suggests that physicians’ inclination to refer patients for suspected cancer is a relatively stable characteristic of their decision making. We aimed to identify its psychological determinants in the presence of a risk-prediction algorithm. Methods We presented 200 UK general practitioners with online vignettes describing patients with possible colorectal cancer. Per the vignette, GPs indicated the likelihood of referral (from highly unlikely to highly likely) and level of cancer risk (negligible/low/medium/high), received an algorithmic risk estimate, and could then revise their responses. After completing the vignettes, GPs responded to questions about their values with regard to harms and benefits of cancer referral for different stakeholders, perceived severity of errors, acceptance of false alarms, and attitudes to uncertainty. We tested whether these values and attitudes predicted their earlier referral decisions. Results The algorithm significantly reduced both referral likelihood ( b = −0.06 [−0.10, −0.007], P = 0.025) and risk level ( b = −0.14 [−0.17, −0.11], P

Keywords: algorithms; decision making; gist; primary care; risk assessment; risk prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0272989X251376024 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:46:y:2026:i:1:p:88-101

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X251376024

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Medical Decision Making
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().