Eualuating Physicians' Probabilistic Judgments

Roy M. Poses, Randall D. Cebul and Robert M. Centor

Medical Decision Making, 1988, vol. 8, issue 4, 233-240

Abstract: Physicians increasingly are challenged to make probabilistic judgments quantitatively. Their ability to make such judgments may be directly linked to the quality of care they provide. Many methods are available to evaluate these judgments. Graphic means of assessment include the calibration curve, covariance graph, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Statistical tools can measure the significance of departures from ideal calibration, and measure the area under ROC curve. Modeling the calibration curve using linear or logistic regression provides another method to assess probabilistic judgments, although these may be limited by failure of the data to meet the model's assumptions. Scoring rules provide indices of overall judgmental performance, although their reliability is difficult to gauge for small sample sizes. Decompositions of scoring rules separate judgmental performance into functional components. The authors provide preliminary guidelines for choosing methods for specific research in this area. Key Words: medical judgments; probabilistic judgments; ROC curves; calibration; models. (Med Decis Making 8:233-240, 1988)

Date: 1988
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0272989X8800800403 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:8:y:1988:i:4:p:233-240

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X8800800403

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Medical Decision Making
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().