How Well Can Physicians Estimate Mortality in a Medical Intensive Care Unit?

Donna Katzman McClish and Stephen H. Powell

Medical Decision Making, 1989, vol. 9, issue 2, 125-132

Abstract: The accuracies of physicians' predictions of mortality for 523 patients in a medical intensive care unit were compared with estimates derived from a logistic model. The model utilized a popular severity-of-illness measure, the APACHE II. Accuracy was assessed through its components resolution (discrimination) and calibration. Physicians could better discriminate survivors from nonsurvivors, as measured by the area under the receiver operating char acteristic curve (0.89 for physicians vs 0.83 for APACHE II model, p

Date: 1989
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:9:y:1989:i:2:p:125-132

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X8900900207

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