Formal and Informal Aspects of Forecasting With an Econometric Model

M.J.C. Surrey and Paul Ormerod ()
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M.J.C. Surrey: National Institute of Economic and Social Research

National Institute Economic Review, 1977, vol. 81, issue 1, 67-71

Abstract: The construction of an economic forecast involves a blend of the use of a set of formal equations summarising to the best of the model-builders' ability the dominant characteristics of the past behaviour of the economy, together with a complex set of judgements about the way in which these equations have recently behaved and are likely to behave over the forecast period. We, in common with other forecasters, have published papers about the characteristics of our formal model and about particular equations, but little about the rather flexible way in which the model is actually used to produce a forecast. This Note is an attempt to redress the balance somewhat. It is also intended as an explanatory note to the table of residual adjustments which, beginning with this issue of the Review (see p. 19), we intend to publish regularly as part of the background to our quarterly forecasts.

Date: 1977
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