Details about Paul Ormerod

Access statistics for papers by Paul Ormerod.

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Short-id: por16

Working Papers

2018

1. News and narratives in financial systems: exploiting big data for systemic risk assessment
   Bank of England working papers, Bank of England View citations (28)

2017

2. Predicting Economic Recessions Using Machine Learning Algorithms
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (12)

2015

3. Measuring Financial Sentiment to Predict Financial Instability: A New Approach based on Text Analysis
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (8)
4. The economics of radical uncertainty
   Economics Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
   See also Journal Article The economics of radical uncertainty, Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2015) (2015)

2014

5. Big Data, Socio-Psychological Theory, Algorithmic Text Analysis and Predicting the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (6)

2009

6. Inflation/unemployment regimes and the instability of the Phillips curve
   Economics Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article Inflation/unemployment regimes and the instability of the Phillips curve, Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2013) View citations (7) (2013)

2008

7. Global recessions as a cascade phenomenon with heterogenous, interacting agents
   Papers, arXiv.org
8. Random Matrix Theory and the Evolution of Business Cycle Synchronisation, 1886-2006
   Economics Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (6)
   Also in Papers, arXiv.org (2008) View citations (6)
9. Shelf space strategy in long-tail markets
   Papers, arXiv.org
10. The evolution of EU business cycle synchronisation 1981-2007
    Papers, arXiv.org

2004

11. How much can firms know?
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2004, Society for Computational Economics
12. Information cascades and the distribution of economic recessions in the United States
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (4)

2003

13. The US Business Cycle: an agent-based model of heterogenous firms operating under uncertainty
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics

2002

14. An agent-based model of the evolution of competition and market structure
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2002, Society for Computational Economics
15. Power Law Distribution of the Frequency of Demises of U.S Firms
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Power law distribution of the frequency of demises of US firms, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier (2003) View citations (12) (2003)

1991

16. Is There an `EMS' Effect in European Labour Markets?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (5)

Journal Articles

2018

1. Recent origin and evolution of obesity-income correlation across the United States
   Palgrave Communications, 2018, 4, (1), 1-14 View citations (2)
2. The Tyranny of Metrics by Jerry Z. Muller
   Economic Affairs, 2018, 38, (2), 294-295

2017

3. Market Structure with Interacting Consumers
   Review of Behavioral Economics, 2017, 4, (1), 33-49 View citations (3)

2016

4. Corruption and economic resilience: recovery from the financial crisis in western economies
   Economic Affairs, 2016, 36, (3), 348-355 View citations (2)
5. Picking Up the Gauntlet: Richard Thaler's Defence of Behavioural Economics
   Economic Affairs, 2016, 36, (1), 91-101 View citations (1)
6. Science, the State and the City: Britain's Struggle to Succeed in Biotechnology by Geoffrey Owen and Michael M. Hopkins. Oxford University Press (2016), 272 pp. ISBN: 978-0198728009 (hb, £35.00)
   Economic Affairs, 2016, 36, (3), 399-401

2015

7. A Comment on Gintis and Helbing “Homo Socialis: An Analytical Core for Sociological Theoryâ€
   Review of Behavioral Economics, 2015, 2, (1-2), 175-182
8. The economics of radical uncertainty
   Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), 2015, 9, 1-20
   See also Working Paper The economics of radical uncertainty, Economics Discussion Papers (2015) (2015)

2014

9. Evolutionary Approaches to Privatisation
   Economic Affairs, 2014, 34, (2), 156-168
10. The persistence of unemployment at the local area level: evidence from the US and the UK
    Applied Economics Letters, 2014, 21, (1), 28-30 View citations (1)

2013

11. Inflation/unemployment regimes and the instability of the Phillips curve
    Applied Economics, 2013, 45, (12), 1519-1531 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Inflation/unemployment regimes and the instability of the Phillips curve, Economics Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (2) (2009)
12. Notas sobre un plan de estudios de economía del mundo real
    Revista de Economía Institucional, 2013, 15, (29), 13-20

2012

13. ACCELERATED INNOVATION AND INCREASED SPATIAL DIVERSITY OF US POPULAR CULTURE
    Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), 2012, 15, (01n02), 1-13
14. The structure of economic connections between industries: non-scaling behaviour
    International Journal of Complexity in Leadership and Management, 2012, 2, (1/2), 39-51

2011

15. Debate: Time to start picking winners again?
    Public Policy Review, 2011, 17, (4), 183-188 View citations (1)
16. Quality versus mere popularity: a conceptual map for understanding human behavior
    Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, 2011, 10, (2), 181-191 View citations (5)

2010

17. A rapid method for assessing social versus independent interest in health issues: A case study of 'bird flu' and 'swine flu'
    Social Science & Medicine, 2010, 71, (3), 482-485 View citations (5)
18. CHALLENGING THE EMPIRICAL EMPIRE
    Economic Affairs, 2010, 30, (1), 92-94
19. La crisis actual y la culpabilidad de la teoría macroeconómica
    Revista de Economía Institucional, 2010, 12, (22), 111-128
20. Resilience after localeconomic shocks
    Applied Economics Letters, 2010, 17, (5), 503-507 View citations (9)

2009

21. Global recessions as a cascade phenomenon with interacting agents
    Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, 2009, 4, (1), 15-26
22. Innovation, diffusion and agglomeration
    Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 2009, 18, (7), 695-706 View citations (1)
23. Physical space and long-tail markets
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2009, 388, (5), 691-696 View citations (1)
24. TRADITION AND FASHION IN CONSUMER CHOICE: BAGGING THE SCOTTISH MUNROS
    Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2009, 56, (3), 371-381 View citations (3)
25. ‘Binge’ drinking in the UK: a social network phenomenon
    Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, 2009, 8, (2), 135-152 View citations (6)

2008

26. Random Matrix Theory and Macro-Economic Time-Series: An Illustration Using the Evolution of Business Cycle Synchronisation, 1886-2006
    Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), 2008, 2, 1-10 View citations (3)
27. Social network markets: a new definition of the creative industries
    Journal of Cultural Economics, 2008, 32, (3), 167-185 View citations (67)

2007

28. Extracting deep information from limited observations on an evolved social network
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2007, 378, (1), 48-52 View citations (2)

2006

29. Cascades of Failure and Extinction in Evolving Complex Systems
    Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2006, 9, (4), 9 View citations (7)
30. Economic modelling with low-cognition agents
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2006, 370, (1), 60-63
31. Financial market complexity Neil F. Johnson, Paul Jeffries and Pak Ming Hui, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2003; 254 pp, ISBN 0-19-852665-2
    International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2006, 11, (4), 384-384
32. HAYEK, ‘THE INTELLECTUALS AND SOCIALISM’, AND WEIGHTED SCALE‐FREE NETWORKS
    Economic Affairs, 2006, 26, (1), 41-47 View citations (1)
33. Worrying trends in econophysics
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2006, 370, (1), 1-6 View citations (66)

2004

34. Information cascades and the distribution of economic recessions in capitalist economies
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2004, 341, (C), 556-568 View citations (4)
35. Scaling invariant distributions of firms’ exit in OECD countries
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2004, 334, (1), 267-273 View citations (19)
36. Social Networks: Their Role in Access to Financial Services in Britain
    National Institute Economic Review, 2004, 189, (1), 99-109 View citations (3)
37. The Medieval inquisition: scale-free networks and the suppression of heresy
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2004, 339, (3), 645-652 View citations (11)
38. The impossibility of accurate macro-economic forecasting
    Journal of Financial Transformation, 2004, 11, 10-13

2003

39. Power law distribution of the frequency of demises of US firms
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2003, 324, (1), 207-212 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper Power Law Distribution of the Frequency of Demises of U.S Firms, Papers (2002) View citations (5) (2002)
40. Turning the Tide: Bringing Economics Teaching into the Twenty First Century
    International Review of Economic Education, 2003, 1, (1), 71-79 View citations (4)

2002

41. The US business cycle: power law scaling for interacting units with complex internal structure
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2002, 314, (1), 774-785 View citations (10)
42. The convergence of European business cycles 1978–2000
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2002, 307, (3), 494-504 View citations (4)

2001

43. IMF Programmes: Is there a conditionality Laffer Curve?
    World Economics, 2001, 2, (2), 29-49 View citations (19)
44. Power law distribution of the duration and magnitude of recessions in capitalist economies: breakdown of scaling
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2001, 293, (3), 573-582 View citations (24)
45. Revisiting The Death of Economics
    World Economics, 2001, 2, (2), 163-176

2000

46. Random matrix theory and the failure of macro-economic forecasts
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2000, 280, (3), 497-504 View citations (5)

1998

47. Richard Goodwin: A Short Appreciation
    Economic Journal, 1998, 108, (450), 1431-35 View citations (2)

1997

48. Stopping crime spreading
    New Economy, 1997, 4, (2), 83-88 View citations (1)

1984

49. The Forward Rate for the U.S. Dollar and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, 1978-1983
    The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, 1984, 52, (3), 292-99

1982

50. Unemployment in Interwar Britain [Searching for an Explanation of Unemployment in Interwar Britain]
    Journal of Political Economy, 1982, 90, (2), 400-409 View citations (2)

1980

51. Manufactured Export Prices in the United Kingdom and the "Law of One Price."
    The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, 1980, 48, (3), 265-83
52. The forward exchange rate for sterling and the efficiency of expectations
    Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 1980, 116, (2), 205-224 View citations (1)

1978

53. Incomes Policy and Wage Inflation: Empirical Evidence for the Uk 1961-1977
    National Institute Economic Review, 1978, 85, (1), 31-39 View citations (2)
54. Properties of Macroeconomic Models of the Uk Economy: A Comparative Study
    National Institute Economic Review, 1978, 83, (1), 52-72 View citations (1)
55. St. Louis Models of the Uk Economy
    National Institute Economic Review, 1978, 84, (1), 65-69
56. The Effects of Revisions to Central Statistical Office Data for the U.K. Economy
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1978, 40, (2), 165-71

1977

57. Formal and Informal Aspects of Forecasting With an Econometric Model
    National Institute Economic Review, 1977, 81, (1), 67-71

Chapters

2011

1. Network Models of Innovation Process and Policy Implications
   Chapter 19 in Handbook on the Economic Complexity of Technological Change, 2011

2004

2. On the Methodology of Assessing Agent-Based Evolutionary Models in the Social Sciences
   Chapter 2 in Evolution and Economic Complexity, 2004

2002

3. Post-orthodox econometrics
   Chapter 9 in Keynes, Uncertainty and the Global Economy, 2002