Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia

Nicholas Apergis (), Andrea Mervar and James Payne

Tourism Economics, 2017, vol. 23, issue 1, 78-98

Abstract: This study examines the performance of four alternative univariate seasonal time series forecasting models (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average [SARIMA], SARIMA with Fourier transformation, ARAR, and fractionally integrated autoregressive-moving average) of tourist arrivals to 20 Croatian counties and the City of Zagreb. Both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts reveal that the SARIMA model with Fourier transformation consistently outperforms the other models across the respective regions investigated.

Keywords: ARAR; ARIMA; Croatia; forecasting; Fourier transformation; tourist arrivals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:23:y:2017:i:1:p:78-98

DOI: 10.5367/te.2015.0499

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