Has tourism driven house prices in Germany? Time-varying evidence since 1870

Sefa Awaworyi Churchill, John Inekwe and Kris Ivanovski
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Sefa Awaworyi Churchill: RMIT University, Australia

Tourism Economics, 2022, vol. 28, issue 7, 1705-1723

Abstract: Using a historical data set and recent advances in non-parametric time series modelling, we investigate the nexus between tourism flows and house prices in Germany over nearly 150 years. We use time-varying non-parametric techniques given that historical data tend to exhibit abrupt changes and other forms of non-linearities. Our findings show evidence of a time-varying effect of tourism flows on house prices, although with mixed effects. The pre-World War II time-varying estimates of tourism show both positive and negative effects on house prices. While changes in tourism flows contribute to increasing housing prices over the post-1950 period, this is short-lived, and the effect declines until the mid-1990s. However, we find a positive and significant relationship after 2000, where the impact of tourism on house prices becomes more pronounced in recent years.

Keywords: Germany; house prices; tourism; tourist arrivals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:28:y:2022:i:7:p:1705-1723

DOI: 10.1177/13548166211008832

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