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The Markov models of cyber-attack life cycles

Romuald Hoffmann
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Romuald Hoffmann: Wojskowa Akademia Techniczna, Wydział Cybernetyki, Instytut Systemów Informatycznych

Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, 2019, issue 54, 303-318

Abstract: Like never before, a better understanding of the nature of cyber-attack processes which are conducted is needed to make informed defensive decisions and actions. Generally, the process by which cyber-attacks are conducted is described as a cyber-attack lifecycle. The lifecycle is named in military manners as a cyber kill chain as well. Despite of the fact that in their nature cyber-attack processes are stochastic, no models of the lifecycles based on the theory of stochastic processes have been proposed and published practically so far. This work has addressed this deficiency by applying Homogeneous Continuous Time Markov Chain methods to descriptions of observed cyber-attack lifecycles. In this paper two types of models are proposed which have been named as: the simple cyber-attack lifecycle model and the model of cyber-attack lifecycle with iterations.

Keywords: cyber-attack lifecycle with iterations; simple cyber-attack lifecycle; cyber-attack process; cyber kill chain; Homogeneous Continuous Time Markov Chain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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