The role of passing network indicators in modeling football outcomes: an application using Bayesian hierarchical models

Riccardo Ievoli (), Aldo Gardini and Lucio Palazzo ()
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Riccardo Ievoli: University of Ferrara
Lucio Palazzo: University of Naples Federico II

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 2023, vol. 107, issue 1, No 8, 153-175

Abstract: Abstract Passes are undoubtedly the more frequent events in football and other team sports. Passing networks and their structural features can be useful to evaluate the style of play in terms of passing behavior, analyzing and quantifying interactions among players. The present paper aims to show how information retrieved from passing networks can have a relevant impact on predicting the match outcome. In particular, we focus on modeling both the scored goals by two competing teams and the goal difference between them. With this purpose, we fit these outcomes using Bayesian hierarchical models, including both in-match and network-based covariates to cover many aspects of the offensive actions on the pitch. Furthermore, we review and compare different approaches to include covariates in modeling football outcomes. The presented methodology is applied to a real dataset containing information on 125 matches of the 2016–2017 UEFA Champions League, involving 32 among the best European teams. From our results, shots on target, corners, and such passing network indicators are the main determinants of the considered football outcomes.

Keywords: Network intensity; Poisson regression; Regularized horseshoe prior; Skellam distribution; UEFA Champions League (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s10182-021-00411-x

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