On optimal lockdown policies while facing socioeconomic costs

Elena Gubar (), Laura Policardo, Edgar Sánchez Carrera () and Vladislav Taynitskiy ()
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Elena Gubar: St. Petersburg State University
Vladislav Taynitskiy: St. Petersburg State University

Annals of Operations Research, 2024, vol. 337, issue 3, No 10, 959-992

Abstract: Abstract The paper analyzes the optimal lockdown policy using the SQAIRD model over a network with three population groups (young, adult, and old). We show that different lockdown policies may be justified by different socioeconomic structures (objective cost functions that are either convex or concave). We also show that a lockdown policy is always better than a laissez-faire policy, and a targeted policy specific to each group outperforms a uniform policy. In our benchmark example, we consider the case of Italy. Our simulations show that: (a) a lockdown policy is always better than the laissez-faire policy because it limits the costs generated by the pandemic in an uncontrolled situation; (b) a group-specific targeted lockout policy is more effective than a uniform policy to the extent that the groups differ. The latter is a less expensive targeted policy (as it optimally minimizes direct, indirect, and vaccination costs), and it is equally effective in controlling the pandemic. One finding of particular interest is that the optimal lockdown rate should be higher for the young and elderly than for adults. This is motivated by the fact that younger individuals are more likely to spread the virus in question asymptomatically.

Keywords: Convex and concave costs; Epidemic process; SIR model; Quarantine; Optimal control; C73; E19; I10; D90; O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10479-023-05454-8

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