A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests

Daniel Goller and Sandro Heiniger ()
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Sandro Heiniger: University of St.Gallen

Annals of Operations Research, 2024, vol. 341, issue 1, No 4, 93 pages

Abstract: Abstract We propose a statistical framework for quantifying the importance of single events that do not provide intermediate rewards but offer implicit incentives through scheduling and the reward structure at the end of a multi-event contest. Applying the framework to primary elections in the US, where earlier elections have greater importance and influence, we show that schedule variations can mitigate the problem of front-loading elections. When applied to European football, we demonstrate the utility and meaningfulness of quantified event importance in relation to the in-match performance of contestants to improve outcome prediction and to provide an early indication of public interest.

Keywords: Data science; Applied probability; Scheduling; Simulation; Event importance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10479-023-05540-x

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