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A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests

Daniel Goller and Sandro Heiniger ()

No 2204, Economics Working Paper Series from University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science

Abstract: We propose a statistical framework for quantifying the importance of single events that do not provide intermediate rewards but offer implicit incentives through the reward structure at the end of a multi-event contest. Applying the framework to primary elections in the US, where earlier elections have greater importance and influence, we show that schedule variations can mitigate the problem of front-loading elections. When applied to European football, we demonstrate the utility and meaningfulness of quantified event importance in relation to the in-match performance of contestants, to improve outcome prediction and to provide an early indication of public interest.

Keywords: Event importance; Football; Front-loading; Incentives; Multi-event contest (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C15 C53 D72 Z20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 56 pages
Date: 2022-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-spo and nep-upt
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:usg:econwp:2022:04

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