Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions

Richard Tol

Climatic Change, 2013, vol. 117, issue 4, 970 pages

Abstract: The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in the level of emissions (while pre- and post-crisis trends are similar). If something like that would happen in China, an event with an unknown but small probability, projected emissions would fall by 50 % or more. The effect of a break-up on emissions in 2050 is larger than the difference between the SRES scenarios. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0723-6

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