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Coal’s medium-run future under atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization

Kathryn Daenzer (), Ian Wing and Karen Fisher-Vanden

Climatic Change, 2014, vol. 123, issue 3, 763-783

Abstract: We assess the future of coal under alternative climate stabilization regimes, investigating how the quantity and location of future coal production, trade and use depends upon five factors: the supply-side constraint of resource depletion, diversification and deepening of international trade, economic growth, trends in energy intensity, and the availability of coal-fired carbon-free electric generation technology (IGCC-CCS). Using the Phoenix computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that coal is sensitive to demand-side assumptions about economic growth and energy-saving structural or technological change. In a 550 ppm stabilization emission tax scenario, the gobal coal industry initially declines sharply and then rebounds, in 2050 reaching roughly the same size as it is today—but only if IGCC-CCS is available by 2020. Under alternative stabilization regimes, IGCC-CCS penetration is a key influence on production and imports in major coal regions, where it interacts with extraction costs driven by the rate of depletion relative to trade partners. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Keywords: Energy production; Energy use; Trade; Coal; Computable general equilibrium; CO 2 emissions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1094-3

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