Predicting large wildfires across western North America by modeling seasonal variation in soil water balance

Richard H. Waring () and Nicholas C. Coops
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Richard H. Waring: Oregon State University
Nicholas C. Coops: University of British Columbia

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 135, issue 2, No 9, 325-339

Abstract: Abstract A lengthening of the fire season, coupled with higher temperatures, increases the probability of fires throughout much of western North America. Although regional variation in the frequency of fires is well established, attempts to predict the occurrence of fire at a spatial resolution 1 km occurred and did not occur at ~100,000 randomly located pixels with an average accuracy of 69 %. Extended over the decade, the area predicted burnt varied by as much as 50 %. The DT identified four seasonal combinations, most of which included exhaustion of ASW during the summer as critical; two combinations involving antecedent conditions the previous spring or fall accounted for 86 % of the predicted fires. The approach introduced in this paper can help identify forested areas where management efforts to reduce fire hazards might prove most beneficial.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1569-x

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