Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming

Philippe Roudier (), Jafet C. M. Andersson, Chantal Donnelly, Luc Feyen, Wouter Greuell and Fulco Ludwig
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Philippe Roudier: Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN/IPSL
Jafet C. M. Andersson: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Chantal Donnelly: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Luc Feyen: Climate and Risk Management Unit, Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission (EC)
Wouter Greuell: Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR)
Fulco Ludwig: Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR)

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 135, issue 2, No 10, 355 pages

Abstract: Abstract We present an assessment of the impacts of a +2°C global warming on extreme floods and hydrological droughts (1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year events) in Europe using eleven bias-corrected climate model simulations from CORDEX Europe and three hydrological models. The results show quite contrasted results between northern and southern Europe. Flood magnitudes are expected to increase significantly south of 60oN, except for some regions (Bulgaria, Poland, south of Spain) where the results are not significant. The sign of these changes are particularly robust in large parts of Romania, Ukraine, Germany, France and North of Spain. North of this line, floods are projected to decrease in most of Finland, NW Russia and North of Sweden, with the exception of southern Sweden and some coastal areas in Norway where floods may increase. The results concerning extreme droughts are less robust, especially for drought duration where the spread of the results among the members is quite high in some areas. Anyway, drought magnitude and duration may increase in Spain, France, Italy, Greece, the Balkans, south of the UK and Ireland. Despite some remarkable differences among the hydrological models’ structure and calibration, the results are quite similar from one hydrological model to another. Finally, an analysis of floods and droughts together shows that the impact of a +2°C global warming will be most extreme for France, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Albania. These results are particularly robust in southern France and northern Spain.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1570-4

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