Tropical cyclone rainfall variability in coastal North Carolina derived from longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.): AD 1771–2014

Paul Knapp (), Justin Maxwell and Peter Soulé

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 135, issue 2, 323 pages

Abstract: Records of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) in the USA typically begin in the mid-20th century and are insufficiently long to fully understand the natural range of TCP variability. In southeastern North Carolina, USA, we use longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) latewood chronologies from two study sites and a combined chronology as a proxy for TCP during AD 1771–2014 as the latewood growth period of June 1st–October 15th coincides with 93 % of annual TCP. We correlate latewood radial growth with TCP based on days when tropical cyclones tracked within a 223 km rain field, with the results (r = 0.71, p > 0.01) supporting the viability of this species to chronicle interannual variations in TCP for multiple centuries. Using annual latewood data during 1953–2014, we reconstruct TCP back to 1836 for the combined chronology. We creat three radial-growth groups (low, near-average, high) and find that corresponding TCP values are significantly different (p > 0.05) between groups. Low radial-growth values are a strong marker (91 % occurrence) of below-average TCP years and high radial-growth years are (73 % occurrence) also good indicators of above-average TCP years. Examination of the temporal occurrence of below- and above-average TCP years into the late 18th century indicate that a predominance of below-average TCP years occur from 1815 to 1876 that are unmatched in the historic record. The high fidelity between longleaf pine latewood growth and TCP coupled with the geographic distribution of the species throughout the southeastern USA where tropical cyclones are common suggest the utility of this species to help better understand the temporal variability of precipitation delivered via tropical cyclones. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1560-6

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