Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models

Izidine Pinto (), Christopher Lennard, Mark Tadross, Bruce Hewitson, Alessandro Dosio, Grigory Nikulin, Hans-Juergen Panitz and Mxolisi E. Shongwe
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Izidine Pinto: University of Cape Town (UCT)
Christopher Lennard: University of Cape Town (UCT)
Mark Tadross: University of Cape Town (UCT)
Bruce Hewitson: University of Cape Town (UCT)
Alessandro Dosio: Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES)
Grigory Nikulin: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
Hans-Juergen Panitz: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Tropopshere Research
Mxolisi E. Shongwe: South African Weather Service and University of Pretoria

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 135, issue 3, No 21, 655-668

Abstract: Abstract The study focuses on the analysis of extreme precipitation events of the present and future climate over southern Africa. Parametric and non-parametric approaches are used to identify and analyse these extreme events in data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models. The performance of the global climate model (GCM) forced regional climate model (RCM) simulations shows that the models are able to capture the observed climatological spatial patterns of the extreme precipitation. It is also shown that the downscaling of the present climate are able to add value to the performance of GCMs over some areas depending on the metric used. The added value over GCMs justifies the additional computational effort of RCM simulation for the generation of relevant climate information for regional application. In the climate projections for the end of twenty-first Century (2069–2098) relative to the reference period (1976–2005), annual total precipitation is projected to decrease while the maximum number of consecutive dry days increases. Maximum 5-day precipitation amounts and 95th percentile of precipitation are also projected to increase significantly in the tropical and sub-tropical regions of southern Africa and decrease in the extra-tropical region. There are indications that rainfall intensity is likely to increase. This does not equate to an increase in total rainfall, but suggests that when it does rain, the intensity is likely to be greater. These changes are magnified under the RCP8.5 when compared with the RCP4.5 and are consistent with previous studies based on GCMs over the region.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1573-1

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