Sensitivity of future U.S. Water shortages to socioeconomic and climate drivers: a case study in Georgia using an integrated human-earth system modeling framework

Michael J. Scott, Don S. Daly, Mohamad I. Hejazi, G. Page Kyle, Lu Liu, Haewon C. McJeon, Anupriya Mundra, Pralit L. Patel, Jennie S. Rice and Nathalie Voisin ()
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Michael J. Scott: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Don S. Daly: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Mohamad I. Hejazi: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland
G. Page Kyle: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland
Lu Liu: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland
Haewon C. McJeon: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland
Anupriya Mundra: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland
Pralit L. Patel: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland
Jennie S. Rice: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Nathalie Voisin: Battelle Seattle Research Center

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 136, issue 2, No 6, 233-246

Abstract: Abstract One of the most important interactions between humans and climate is in the demand and supply of water. Humans withdraw, use, and consume water and return waste water to the environment for a variety of socioeconomic purposes, including domestic, commercial, and industrial use, production of energy resources and cooling thermal-electric power plants, and growing food, fiber, and chemical feed stocks for human consumption. Uncertainties in the future human demand for water interact with future impacts of climatic change on water supplies to impinge on water management decisions at the international, national, regional, and local level, but until recently tools were not available to assess the uncertainties surrounding these decisions. This paper demonstrates the use of a multi-model framework in a structured sensitivity analysis to project and quantify the sensitivity of future deficits in surface water in the context of climate and socioeconomic change for all U.S. states and sub-basins. The framework treats all sources of water demand and supply consistently from the world to local level. The paper illustrates the capabilities of the framework with sample results for a river sub-basin in the U.S. state of Georgia.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1602-8

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