Contribution of the G20 economies to the global impact of the Paris agreement climate proposals

Michel Elzen (), Annemiek Admiraal, Mark Roelfsema, Heleen Soest, Andries F. Hof and Nicklas Forsell
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Michel Elzen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Annemiek Admiraal: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Mark Roelfsema: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Heleen Soest: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Andries F. Hof: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Nicklas Forsell: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 137, issue 3, No 24, 655-665

Abstract: Abstract By 15 December 2015, 187 countries had submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) summarising their climate actions after 2020 in the context of the Paris Agreement. We used a unified framework to assess the mitigation components of INDCs covering 105 countries (representing approximately 91 % of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2012) with a special focus on the G20 economies. We estimated the required reduction effort by comparing the greenhouse gas emission targets implied by the INDCs with the projected levels resulting from current mitigation policies. The resulting projected global reduction effort amounts to approximately 4–6 GtCO2eq by 2030, of which the G20 economies are responsible for the largest share, in particular Brazil, China, the EU, and the United States. Despite these reductions, the global and G20 emission level is still projected to be higher in 2030 than it was in 2010. We compared the ambition levels of individual INDCs by analysing various indicators. Our analysis shows, for instance, that INDCs imply that greenhouse gas emissions of Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Korea peak before 2025, and of China, India and South Africa by 2030 or later.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1700-7

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