The relative importance of climate change and population growth for exposure to future extreme droughts

Oleg Smirnov (), Minghua Zhang, Tingyin Xiao, John Orbell, Amy Lobben and Josef Gordon
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Oleg Smirnov: Stony Brook University
Minghua Zhang: Stony Brook University
Tingyin Xiao: Stony Brook University
John Orbell: University of Oregon
Amy Lobben: University of Oregon
Josef Gordon: University of Oregon

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 138, issue 1, No 4, 53 pages

Abstract: Abstract The human consequences of drought are normally addressed in terms of “water scarcity” originating from human water use. In these terms, a common prediction to the next few decades is that population growth, not climate change, will be the dominant factor determining numbers living under such scarcity. Here we address the relative importance of increasing human caused extreme drought and increasing population for numbers of humans likely to be directly exposed in the future to such drought. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in conjunction with an ensemble of 16 CMIP5 climate models we find that, by 2081-2100 under the high emissions scenario RCP 8.5, average worldwide monthly population exposed to extreme drought (SPEI

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1716-z

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