Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030

Stefan Frank (), Hannes Böttcher, Mykola Gusti, Petr Havlík, Ger Klaassen, Georg Kindermann and Michael Obersteiner
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Stefan Frank: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Hannes Böttcher: Öko-Institut
Mykola Gusti: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Petr Havlík: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Ger Klaassen: European Commission
Georg Kindermann: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Michael Obersteiner: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 138, issue 1, No 18, 253-266

Abstract: Abstract A 2030 climate and energy policy framework was endorsed by the European Council in 2014. The main elements are a binding 40 % greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target compared to 1990, a renewable energy share of 27 %, and an energy savings target of at least 27 % by 2030. In this paper, we assess the impact of these targets on the European land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector using a Europe focused global land use model linked with a detailed forest management model. We show that implementing a 40 % GHG emission reduction target by 2030 may only have a small negative impact on the domestic LULUCF sink if the additional biomass demand for energy is mostly met through ligno-cellulosic energy crops rather than forest removals. However, if the increased biomass demand were met through higher rates of forest harvest removals, a more negative impact on the LULUCF sink could be expected.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1729-7

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