Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison

Steven J. Smith (), Shilpa Rao, Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. Vuuren, Katherine V. Calvin and Page Kyle
Additional contact information
Steven J. Smith: Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL
Shilpa Rao: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Detlef P. Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Katherine V. Calvin: Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL
Page Kyle: Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 138, issue 1, No 2, 13-24

Abstract: Abstract This paper compares projections over the twenty-first century of SO2, BC, and OC emissions from three technologically detailed, long-term integrated assessment models. The character of the projections and the response of emissions due to a comprehensive climate policy are discussed focusing on the sectoral level. In a continuation of historical experience, aerosol and precursor emissions are increasingly decoupled from carbon dioxide emissions over the twenty-first century due to a combination of emission controls and technology shifts over time. Implementation of a comprehensive climate policy further reduces emissions, although there is significant variation in this response by sector and by model: the response has many similarities between models for the energy transformation and transportation sectors, with more diversity in the response for the building and industrial sectors. Much of these differences can be traced to specific characteristics of reference case end-use and supply-side technology deployment and emissions control assumptions, which are detailed by sector.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1733-y

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