The effect of climate change on rural land cover patterns in the Central United States

Christopher Lant (), Timothy J. Stoebner, Justin T. Schoof and Benjamin Crabb
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Christopher Lant: Utah State University
Timothy J. Stoebner: Environmental Systems Research Institute
Justin T. Schoof: Southern Illinois University
Benjamin Crabb: Utah State University

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 138, issue 3, No 16, 585-602

Abstract: Abstract This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution (see https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.859593?format=html ), while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three coupled climate models, three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area within the study area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes; suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean rotations to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

Keywords: Climate change adaptation; Climatic downscaling; Land use land cover change; U.S. Midwest (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1738-6

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