Effects of climate change on the distribution of indigenous species in oceanic islands (Azores)

Maria Teresa Ferreira (), Pedro Cardoso, Paulo A.V. Borges, Rosalina Gabriel, Eduardo Brito Azevedo, Francisco Reis, Miguel B. Araújo and Rui Bento Elias
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Maria Teresa Ferreira: CE3C – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes/Azorean Biodiversity Group and Universidade dos Açores - Departamento de Ciências Agrárias
Pedro Cardoso: CE3C – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes/Azorean Biodiversity Group and Universidade dos Açores - Departamento de Ciências Agrárias
Paulo A.V. Borges: CE3C – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes/Azorean Biodiversity Group and Universidade dos Açores - Departamento de Ciências Agrárias
Rosalina Gabriel: CE3C – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes/Azorean Biodiversity Group and Universidade dos Açores - Departamento de Ciências Agrárias
Eduardo Brito Azevedo: Meteorology and Global Change of the University of the Azores (CCMMG- CITA-A), Universidade dos Açores
Francisco Reis: Meteorology and Global Change of the University of the Azores (CCMMG- CITA-A), Universidade dos Açores
Miguel B. Araújo: Department of Biogeography and Global Change, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC
Rui Bento Elias: CE3C – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes/Azorean Biodiversity Group and Universidade dos Açores - Departamento de Ciências Agrárias

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 138, issue 3, No 17, 603-615

Abstract: Abstract Oceanic islands host a high proportion of the world’s endemic species. Many such species are at risk of extinction owing to habitat degradation and loss, biological invasions and other threats, but little is known about the effects of climate change on island native biodiversity. The Azorean archipelago provides a unique opportunity to study species-climate-change relationships. We used ensemble forecasting to evaluate the current and future distribution of well-studied endemic and native bryophytes (19 species), endemic vascular plants (59 species) and endemic arthropods (128 species), for two of the largest Azorean Islands, Terceira and São Miguel. Using a Regional Climate Model (CIELO), and assuming the extreme scenario RCP8.5, we examined changes in the potential distributions of the species and possible loss of climate space for them. Models projected that 23 species (11 %) could lose all adequate climate on either one or both islands. Five additional species were projected to lose ≥90 % of climate space. In total, 90 % of the species were projected to lose climate space: 79 % of bryophytes, 93 % of vascular plants and 91 % of arthropods. We also found for vascular plants and arthropods a tendency for upward shift in altitude in their suitable climate space, while for bryophytes the shift was towards the coastal areas. Our results have profound implications for future conservation priorities on islands, such as for the redrawing of conservation borders of current protected areas.

Keywords: Climate change; Azores; Oceanic Islands; Ensemble modelling; Species distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1754-6

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