Natural hazards in Australia: floods

Fiona Johnson (), Christopher J. White, Albert Dijk, Marie Ekstrom, Jason P. Evans, Dörte Jakob, Anthony S. Kiem, Michael Leonard, Alexandra Rouillard and Seth Westra
Additional contact information
Fiona Johnson: UNSW
Christopher J. White: University of Tasmania
Albert Dijk: Australian National University
Marie Ekstrom: Land and Water, Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organisation
Jason P. Evans: UNSW
Dörte Jakob: Environment and Research Division, Bureau of Meteorology
Anthony S. Kiem: University of Newcastle
Michael Leonard: University of Adelaide
Alexandra Rouillard: The University of Western Australia
Seth Westra: University of Adelaide

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 139, issue 1, No 2, 35 pages

Abstract: Abstract Floods are caused by a number of interacting factors, making it remarkably difficult to explain changes in flood hazard. This paper reviews the current understanding of historical trends and variability in flood hazard across Australia. Links between flood and rainfall trends cannot be made due to the influence of climate processes over a number of spatial and temporal scales as well as landscape changes that affect the catchment response. There are also still considerable uncertainties in future rainfall projections, particularly for sub-daily extreme rainfall events. This is in addition to the inherent uncertainty in hydrological modelling such as antecedent conditions and feedback mechanisms. Research questions are posed based on the current state of knowledge. These include a need for high-resolution climate modelling studies and efforts in compiling and analysing databases of sub-daily rainfall and flood records. Finally there is a need to develop modelling frameworks that can deal with the interaction between climate processes at different spatio-temporal scales, so that historical flood trends can be better explained and future flood behaviour understood.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1689-y

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