Natural hazards in Australia: extreme bushfire

Jason J. Sharples (), Geoffrey J. Cary, Paul Fox-Hughes, Scott Mooney, Jason P. Evans, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Mike Fromm, Pauline F. Grierson, Rick McRae and Patrick Baker
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Jason J. Sharples: University of New South Wales
Geoffrey J. Cary: The Australian National University
Paul Fox-Hughes: Bureau of Meteorology
Scott Mooney: University of New South Wales
Jason P. Evans: University of New South Wales
Michael-Shawn Fletcher: University of Melbourne
Mike Fromm: US Naval Research Laboratory
Pauline F. Grierson: University of Western Australia
Rick McRae: Australian Capital Territory Emergency Services Agency
Patrick Baker: University of Melbourne

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 139, issue 1, No 6, 85-99

Abstract: Abstract Bushfires are one of the most frequent natural hazards experienced in Australia. Fires play an important role in shaping the landscape and its ecological dynamics, but may also have devastating effects that cause human injuries and fatalities, as well as broad-scale environmental damage. While there has been considerable effort to quantify changes in the occurrence of bushfire in Australia, a comprehensive assessment of the most extreme bushfire cases, which exact the greatest economic and environmental impacts, is lacking. In this paper we reflect upon recently developed understanding of bushfire dynamics to consider (i) historical changes in the occurrence of extreme bushfires, and (ii) the potential for increasing frequency in the future under climate change projections. The science of extreme bushfires is still a developing area, thus our conclusions about emerging patterns in their occurrence should be considered tentative. Nonetheless, historical information on noteworthy bushfire events suggests an increased occurrence in recent decades. Based on our best current understanding of how extreme bushfires develop, there is strong potential for them to increase in frequency in the future. As such there is a pressing need for a greater understanding of these powerful and often destructive phenomena.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1811-1

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