Projected changes in area of the Sundarban mangrove forest in Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100

Andres Payo (), Anirban Mukhopadhyay (), Sugata Hazra (), Tuhin Ghosh (), Subhajit Ghosh (), Sally Brown (), Robert J. Nicholls (), Lucy Bricheno (), Judith Wolf (), Susan Kay (), Attila N. Lázár () and Anisul Haque ()
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Andres Payo: University of Southampton
Anirban Mukhopadhyay: Jadavpur University
Sugata Hazra: Jadavpur University
Tuhin Ghosh: Jadavpur University
Subhajit Ghosh: Jadavpur University
Sally Brown: University of Southampton
Robert J. Nicholls: University of Southampton
Lucy Bricheno: National Oceanography Centre
Judith Wolf: National Oceanography Centre
Susan Kay: Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Attila N. Lázár: University of Southampton
Anisul Haque: Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 139, issue 2, No 11, 279-291

Abstract: Abstract The Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem, located in India and Bangladesh, is recognized as a global priority for biodiversity conservation and is an important provider of ecosystem services such as numerous goods and protection against storm surges. With global mean sea-level rise projected as up to 0.98 m or greater by 2100 relative to the baseline period (1985–2005), the Sundarbans – mean elevation presently approximately 2 m above mean sea-level – is under threat from inundation and subsequent wetland loss; however the magnitude of loss remains unclear. We used remote and field measurements, geographic information systems and simulation modelling to investigate the potential effects of three sea-level rise scenarios on the Sundarbans within coastal Bangladesh. We illustrate how the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is able to reproduce the observed area losses for the period 2000–2010. Using this calibrated model and assuming that mean sea-level is a better proxy than the SLAMM assumed mean lower low water for Mangrove area delineation, the estimated mangrove area net losses (relative to year 2000) are 81–178 km2, 111–376 km2 and 583–1393 km2 for relative sea-level rise scenarios to 2100 of 0.46 m, 0.75 m and 1.48 m, respectively and net subsidence of ±2.5 mm/year. These area losses are very small (

Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1769-z

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