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A mechanistic approach reveals non linear effects of climate warming on mussels throughout the Mediterranean sea

Valeria Montalto (), Brian Helmuth, Paolo M Ruti, Alessandro Dell’Aquila, Alessandro Rinaldi and Gianluca Sarà
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Valeria Montalto: Università di Palermo
Brian Helmuth: Northeastern University
Paolo M Ruti: World Meteorological Organization
Alessandro Dell’Aquila: ENEA, Energy & Environment Modeling Unit
Alessandro Rinaldi: Università di Palermo
Gianluca Sarà: Università di Palermo

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 139, issue 2, No 12, 293-306

Abstract: Abstract There is a dire need to forecast the ecological impacts of global climate change at scales relevant to policy and management. We used three interconnected models (climatic, biophysical and energetics) to estimate changes in growth, reproduction and mortality risk by 2050, for three commercially and ecologically important bivalves at 51 sites in the Mediterranean Sea. These results predict highly variable responses (both positive and negative) in the time to reproductive maturity and in the risk of lethality among species and sites that do not conform to simple latitudinal gradients, and which would be undetectable by methods focused only on lethal limits and/or range boundaries.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1780-4

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