Mapping climate change adaptive capacity and vulnerability of smallholder agricultural livelihoods in Central America: ranking and descriptive approaches to support adaptation strategies
Claudia Bouroncle (),
Pablo Imbach,
Beatriz Rodríguez-Sánchez,
Claudia Medellín,
Armando Martinez-Valle and
Peter Läderach
Additional contact information
Claudia Bouroncle: Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE)
Pablo Imbach: Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE)
Beatriz Rodríguez-Sánchez: International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
Claudia Medellín: Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE)
Armando Martinez-Valle: International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
Peter Läderach: International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
Climatic Change, 2017, vol. 141, issue 1, No 9, 123-137
Abstract:
Abstract Climate change is one of the main threats to rural livelihoods in Central America, especially for small and medium-sized farmers. Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) integrates biophysical and socioeconomic information to support policy decisions. We present a CCVA of agricultural livelihoods of four countries in Central America, at the municipality level. We use the IPCC definition of vulnerability, and address the potential impact of climate change on suitability for major crops and adaptive capacity using indicators of basic human needs, as well as resources for innovation and action framed in a livelihoods approach. Adaptive capacity was estimated using ranking techniques for municipalities and descriptive multivariate analysis. Projected changes in climate suitability for crops show a wide variation between Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, and within each country. Cluster analysis of adaptive capacity values shows a gradient between higher values close to urban areas and lower values in agricultural frontier areas and in those prone to drought. Municipalities with a high proportional area under subsistence crops tend to have less resources to promote innovation and action for adaptation. Our results suggest that a full spectrum of adaptation levels and strategies must be considered in the region to achieve different adaptation goals. They also show that the adaptive capacity ranking and characterization are complementary and support geographical prioritization and identification of adaptation strategies, respectively.
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1792-0
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