Regional modeling of climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture and ecosystems in Central America

Lee Hannah (), Camila I. Donatti, Celia A. Harvey, Eric Alfaro, Daniel Andres Rodriguez, Claudia Bouroncle, Edwin Castellanos, Freddy Diaz, Emily Fung, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Pablo Imbach, Peter Läderach, Jason P. Landrum and Ana Lucía Solano
Additional contact information
Lee Hannah: Conservation International
Camila I. Donatti: Conservation International
Celia A. Harvey: Conservation International
Eric Alfaro: University of Costa Rica
Daniel Andres Rodriguez: National Institute for Space Research of Brazil
Claudia Bouroncle: Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE)
Edwin Castellanos: Universidad del Valle de Guatemala
Freddy Diaz: Universidad del Valle de Guatemala
Emily Fung: Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE)
Hugo G. Hidalgo: University of Costa Rica
Pablo Imbach: Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE)
Peter Läderach: International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), CGIAR program on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Jason P. Landrum: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Overseas Fellow serving at the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
Ana Lucía Solano: Universidad del Valle de Guatemala

Climatic Change, 2017, vol. 141, issue 1, No 3, 29-45

Abstract: Abstract Climate change will have serious repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and farmer livelihoods in Central America. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and ecosystem services for their livelihoods. There is an urgent need to develop national and local adaptation responses to reduce these impacts, yet evidence from historical climate change is fragmentary. Modeling efforts help bridge this gap. Here, we review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America. The results of this review provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts. Modeling indicates future climate-driven changes, often declines, in suitability for Central American crops. Declines in suitability for coffee, a central crop in the regional economy, are noteworthy. Ecosystem models suggest that climate-driven changes are likely at low- and high-elevation montane forest transitions. Modeling of vulnerability suggests that smallholders in many parts of the region have one or more vulnerability factors that put them at risk. Initial adaptation policies can be guided by these existing modeling results. At the same time, improved modeling is being developed that will allow policy action specifically targeted to vulnerable groups, crops, and locations. We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases (especially coffee leaf rust) are key priorities for future research.

Keywords: Climate Change; Ecosystem Service; Cassava; Adaptation Strategy; Extension Service (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1867-y Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1867-y

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1867-y

Access Statistics for this article

Climatic Change is currently edited by M. Oppenheimer and G. Yohe

More articles in Climatic Change from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().