A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C

Simon N. Gosling (), Jamal Zaherpour, Nick J. Mount, Fred F. Hattermann, Rutger Dankers, Berit Arheimer, Lutz Breuer, Jie Ding, Ingjerd Haddeland, Rohini Kumar, Dipangkar Kundu, Junguo Liu, Ann Griensven, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Tobias Vetter, Xiaoyan Wang and Xinxin Zhang
Additional contact information
Simon N. Gosling: University of Nottingham
Jamal Zaherpour: University of Nottingham
Nick J. Mount: University of Nottingham
Fred F. Hattermann: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Rutger Dankers: Met Office
Berit Arheimer: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Lutz Breuer: Justus Liebig University
Jie Ding: South University of Science and Technology of China
Ingjerd Haddeland: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
Rohini Kumar: UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
Dipangkar Kundu: The University of Sydney
Junguo Liu: South University of Science and Technology of China
Ann Griensven: Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Ted I. E. Veldkamp: Vrije Universiteit, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)
Tobias Vetter: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Xiaoyan Wang: Hohai University
Xinxin Zhang: Beijing Forestry University

Climatic Change, 2017, vol. 141, issue 3, No 15, 577-595

Abstract: Abstract We present one of the first climate change impact assessments on river runoff that utilises an ensemble of global hydrological models (Glob-HMs) and an ensemble of catchment-scale hydrological models (Cat-HMs), across multiple catchments: the upper Amazon, Darling, Ganges, Lena, upper Mississippi, upper Niger, Rhine and Tagus. Relative changes in simulated mean annual runoff (MAR) and four indicators of high and low extreme flows are compared between the two ensembles. The ensemble median values of changes in runoff with three different scenarios of global-mean warming (1, 2 and 3 °C above pre-industrial levels) are generally similar between the two ensembles, although the ensemble spread is often larger for the Glob-HM ensemble. In addition the ensemble spread is normally larger than the difference between the two ensemble medians. Whilst we find compelling evidence for projected runoff changes for the Rhine (decrease), Tagus (decrease) and Lena (increase) with global warming, the sign and magnitude of change for the other catchments is unclear. Our model results highlight that for these three catchments in particular, global climate change mitigation, which limits global-mean temperature rise to below 2 °C above preindustrial levels, could avoid some of the hydrological hazards that could be seen with higher magnitudes of global warming.

Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1773-3

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