Cross‐scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

F. F. Hattermann (), V. Krysanova, S. N. Gosling, R. Dankers, P. Daggupati, C. Donnelly, M. Flörke, S. Huang, Y. Motovilov, S. Buda, T. Yang, C. Müller, G. Leng, Q. Tang, F. T. Portmann, S. Hagemann, D. Gerten, Y. Wada, Y. Masaki, T. Alemayehu, Y. Satoh and L. Samaniego
Additional contact information
F. F. Hattermann: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
V. Krysanova: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
S. N. Gosling: University of Nottingham
R. Dankers: Met Office
P. Daggupati: University of Guelph
C. Donnelly: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
M. Flörke: University of Kassel
S. Huang: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Y. Motovilov: Water Problems Institute of Russian Academy of Science
S. Buda: China Meteorological Administration
T. Yang: Hohai University
C. Müller: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
G. Leng: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Q. Tang: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
F. T. Portmann: Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University Frankfurt am Main
S. Hagemann: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
D. Gerten: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Y. Wada: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Y. Masaki: National Institute for Environmental Studies
T. Alemayehu: Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Y. Satoh: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
L. Samaniego: UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research

Climatic Change, 2017, vol. 141, issue 3, No 14, 576 pages

Abstract: Abstract Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.

Keywords: River Basin; Regional Model; Climate Change Impact; Hydrological Model; Reference Period (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1829-4

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