Simulation of leaf blast infection in tropical rice agro-ecology under climate change scenario

K. Viswanath, P. Sinha (), S. Naresh Kumar, Taru Sharma, Shalini Saxena, Shweta Panjwani, H. Pathak and Shalu Mishra Shukla
Additional contact information
K. Viswanath: ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute
P. Sinha: ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute
S. Naresh Kumar: ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute
Taru Sharma: ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute
Shalini Saxena: ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute
Shweta Panjwani: ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute
H. Pathak: ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute
Shalu Mishra Shukla: ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute

Climatic Change, 2017, vol. 142, issue 1, No 12, 155-167

Abstract: Abstract Assessing disease risk has become an important component in the development of climate change adaptation strategies. Here, the infection ability of leaf blast (Magnaporthe oryzae) was modeled based on the epidemiological parameters of minimum (T min), optimum (T opt), and maximum (T max) temperatures for sporulation and lesion development. An infection ability response curve was used to assess the impact of rising temperature on the disease. The simulated spatial pattern of the infection ability index (IAI) corresponded with observed leaf blast occurrence in Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP). The IAI for leaf blast is projected to increase during the winter season (December–March) in 2020 (2010–2039) and 2050 (2040–2069) climate scenarios due to temperature rise, particularly in lower latitudes. However, during monsoon season (July–October), the IAI is projected to remain unchanged or even reduce across the IGP. The results show that the response curve may be successfully used to assess the impact of climate change on leaf blast in rice. The model could be further extended with a crop model to assess yield loss.

Keywords: Climate change; Infection ability model; Leaf blast; Rice (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1942-z

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