Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions

Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young (), Francis W. Zwiers, Nathan P. Gillett and Alex J. Cannon
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Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young: University of Victoria
Francis W. Zwiers: University of Victoria
Nathan P. Gillett: University of Victoria
Alex J. Cannon: University of Victoria

Climatic Change, 2017, vol. 144, issue 2, No 20, 365-379

Abstract: Abstract Canada is expected to see an increase in fire risk under future climate projections. Large fires, such as that near Fort McMurray, Alberta in 2016, can be devastating to the communities affected. Understanding the role of human emissions in the occurrence of such extreme fire events can lend insight into how these events might change in the future. An event attribution framework is used to quantify the influence of anthropogenic forcings on extreme fire risk in the current climate of a western Canada region. Fourteen metrics from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System are used to define the extreme fire seasons. For the majority of these metrics and during the current decade, the combined effect of anthropogenic and natural forcing is estimated to have made extreme fire risk events in the region 1.5 to 6 times as likely compared to a climate that would have been with natural forcings alone.

Keywords: Event attribution; Fire weather; Extremes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2030-0

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